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Distillate production decreased in PADD I and inventories dropped slightly. But production
of distillate increased in PADDs II and III, adding to the inventories in PADD II and maintaining
the same levels in PADD III. There's still plenty of distillate in storage.
Gasoline prices remained low: PAD I - $.91,
PAD II - $.90, and the price increased by two cents in PAD III at $0.89.
Diesel prices on February 8 were:
PADD I - $.97, PADD II - $.94, and PADD III - $.94
Our wandering reader, Bob, sent in this report:
"Under a dollar" gasoline has finally hit Rockville. All five of the
stations at the intersection of Rockville Pike and Twinbrook Parkway are
selling regular for .999 (Texaco, Shell, Exxon, Amoco and another Shell)
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One US route 30 in the Irwin Pennsylvania area, BP Sunoco and Super
America are (still) selling for .829. Likewise, on route 30 in the
Bedford/Everett area, Sheetz and Exxon (across from each other) are
.819. The BP about a mile east has the following prices:
Regular 87 .819
Plus 89 .869
Super 93 .959
Kerosene .789
"Off Road Fuel" .699
Here in the Pittsburgh (North Hills) area gas is .879 for a low
(Pennzoil), most being .899 and some .919 for regular.
The North Hills is essentially West View Borough, Ross Township, Shaler
Township, and McCandless Township which is just north of Ross.
FORECAST: Gasoline prices will remain low and may drop further with the price of crude oil
during late February and early March. Heating oil prices will decrease through spring as
refiners try to draw down inventories.
Rocky Mountain Gasoline and Diesel
Rocky Mountain - the price of regular gasoline decreased to
$.95 per gallon and the price of diesel increased to $.99 per gallon.
Rocky Mountain prices should continue to mirror changes in the price of crude oil. Gasoline
prices probably decreased due to slightly higher inventories of gasoline in the region.
West Coast Gasoline and Diesel Forecast
West Coast - Refining rates in the West were up slightly at 2.375
million bpd. Production of gasoline, diesel and residual oil increased, but not enough to match
demand. Inventories dropped slightly -- an indication that refiners struck a balance between
supply and demand.
On February 8 the average price of (reg-mid-premium)
gasoline in PADD V actually decreased one cent to $1.12 per gallon.
The price of Regular dropped one cent $1.07 per gallon.
Reformulated gasoline decreased one cent to
$1.10 per gallon. In Sacramento, gasoline could still be found at an ARCO for $.99.
And within the areas
designated by the EPA as both an ozone and a carbon monoxide nonattainment area which requires the use
of oxygenated fuels program reformulated gasoline, the price of OPRG gasoline was $.93.
The average price of diesel in PADD V leveled out at $1.04 and Californian's are still paying
$1.11 per gallon.
FORECAST: There are currenly no variables that can be used to forecast the price of
products in the West. Prices have been steady for months, but inventories are being drawn down,
so it is possible that a tighter supply may result in higher prices this spring.
Many readers write in and ask for more data or specific information. You are encouraged to explore
the NOESIS Index Page and the Links Page. The
links listed have been especially selected to get you to data and information which will supplement
the information you find on the NOESIS site. They are all great sites! For EIA data used in these
forecasts, select the Energy Information Administration link. Once there, select Petroleum. Then
select "Weekly Petroleum Status Report" The TEXT version gives you basic data. Or scroll down
and select pdf, text or html files for tables and graphs. There is a wealth of information on
the EIA site. With the analytical tools you've picked up by reading the NOESIS reports, you should
be able to use most of the data! As always, if you have questions, send email.
contact George Clemen at NOESIS
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