W
orld crude oil prices reported
by EIA as of January 8, 1999: Saudi Arabian Lt (34 API) - $10.23, Nigerian Bonny Light
(37 API) - $11.05, UK Brent (38 API) - $11.57, and Mexico Maya (22 API) - $7.83.
Posted prices for crude oil as of January 18, 1999
were: Scurlock, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), $9.50; Louisiana Lt. Sweet Onshore $8.75,
Oklahoma Sweet $9.50; Kern River (13 API) $7,25; Alaska North Slope (28 API) $10.12;
Kettleman Hill (34 API) $9.45(Avg) and Wilmington (17 API) $7.60
East Coast Gasoline and Heating Oil
East of the Rockies - Stocks of all products are at exceptionally high levels after
two weeks of unseasonably high refining rates. Temporary shutdowns of various refineries and
refinery units during February may help draw down the levels, so it is a little early to predict
the effect these high levels will have on overall operations. However, it is clear that no matter
what happens, demand for crude oil will be slack. Expect refiners to take advantage of the
situation and fill tanks with the lowest price, highest quality crude oil they can find.
Gasoline and diesel prices remain low and heating oil prices should still be at summer levels
given the amount of product in inventory. Buyers should shop around.
The closure of gas stations that were not in compliance with UST regulations does not appear to
have had any impact on the supply or prices of gasoline.
EIA reported gasoline prices per gallon for Regular on January 8 were as follows: PAD I - $.92,
PAD II - $.93, and PAD III - 0.89.
Diesel prices on January 11 were:
PADD I - $.97, PADD II - $.95, and PADD III - $.94
FORECAST: Gasoline prices will remain low and may drop further with the price of crude oil
during late February and early March. Diesel prices should remain stable through spring.
The price of heating oil will remain low through 1999 -- there should be plenty of vendors
willing to sell at reasonable prices.
Rocky Mountain Gasoline and Diesel
Rocky Mountain - the price of regular gasoline decreased
to $.95 per gallon and the price of diesel remained at about $.99 per gallon.
Rocky Mountain prices will continue to mirror changes in the price of crude oil.
West Coast Gasoline and Diesel Forecast
West Coast - Refinery operations in the West are steady, although
production of gasoline finally increased enough to build inventories by 1.9 million barrels last week to
a total of 30.1 million, which is 3.8 million less than they had in storage last January.
On January 8 the average price of (reg-mid-premium)
gasoline in PADD V was $1.15 per gallon.
The price of Regular in PADD was $1.10 per gallon. Reformulated gasoline costs
$1.13 per gallon.
The average price of diesel in PADD V dropped to $1.05 and Californian's are paying
$1.11 per gallon. Production of diesel decreased, so it is possible that the price of diesel
may increase in the near term, despite lower crude oil prices.
FORECAST: The price of gasoline and diesel SHOULD continue to follow the price of crude
oil. Higher gasoline inventories and lower diesel inventories may lead to different marketing
strategies which could lead to lower gasoline prices and higher diesel prices within the next
couple of weeks.
Many readers write in and ask for more data or specific information. You are encouraged to explore
the NOESIS Index Page and the Links Page. The
links listed have been especially selected to get you to data and information which will supplement
the information you find on the NOESIS site. They are all great sites! For EIA data used in these
forecasts, select the Energy Information Administration link. Once there, select Petroleum. Then
select "Weekly Petroleum Status Report" The TEXT version gives you basic data. Or scroll down
and select pdf, text or html files for tables and graphs. There is a wealth of information on
the EIA site. With the analytical tools you've picked up by reading the NOESIS reports, you should
be able to use most of the data! As always, if you have questions, send email.
contact George Clemen at NOESIS
