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January 25, 1999

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TO FIND OUT THE CURRENT FUTURES PRICES OF CRUDE OIL, GASOLINE and HEATING OIL, CHECK OUT THIS NEW LINK TO NEW YORK ENERGY TEAM


Special Report on Crude Oils

Each crude oil produced is a unique combination of hundreds of chemicals and metals. Considering the wide variation in the qualities of crude oil, it is amazing that the refining industry is so efficient at making a few standard fuels that are of consistent enough quality to allow the design and operation of fuel consuming machines.

To avoid having thousands of barrels of unwanted oil around, the refiners must continually balance the production of products in such a way that virtually all of each barrel of crude oil is used in some manner. They do this by dividing the oil into several subportions based on boiling points (the temperature at which the liquid begins to boil). Other than for the production of specific chemical plant feedstocks and for environmental monitoring, the refiner does not concern himself much with the exact chemicals in his products. As a result, every refined product is slightly different in chemical makeup than the next - each batch of product made has a unique fingerprint. As a result, crude oils are marketed based on their assay, which is simply a summary of the percent volume of the crude that falls into each of several boiling point ranges. The boiling point ranges roughly define naphtha (gasoline), distillate, and residual oil.

Refineries are designed and operated based on the quality of a crude oil. In the beginning of oil refining a refinery was designed to process a specific crude oil, or specific combination of crude oils -- what ever was produced closest to the refinery. Over the years, as local production played out, refiners had to bring in new crude oils from other sources -- nationally first, then from international sources. On of the main reasons the U.S. was caught short by OPEC in the 1970's was simply because our refineries depended on imported light (34+), sweet (low sulfur) crudes. And at the time, the unlimited source was from OPEC countries. So when OPEC cut off the flow of oil, U.S. refiners had no real alternatives. Although there was heavy, high sulfur oil available from various other sources, our refineries could not process those crudes.

Times have changed. In the 1980's refineries were modified to allow the use of a wider range of crude oil and they began to import a wider range of crude oils, which opened up the market to many new producers. Now, refiners can accomodate the heavier crude oils, but when supply is plentiful, they will always prefer the light, sweet crude. Refining light, sweet crude oil is requires less processing to make gasoline and distillate and results in lower air emissions per barrel refined. So a refiner can actually operate at a higher feed rate under the same permit. The value in the lighter crude oil translates to a higher bid price for light, sweet crude oil. The variation in prices for crude oil is a function of supply and demand for similar crudes. The industry generally uses API gravity and % sulfur as the two primary guiding parameters to indicate crude oil quality. Of course, crude oil buyers discriminate further to make sure their refinery can actually run a specific crude oil. But, in general, they talk in terms of API and sulfur. The higher the API, the lighter the crude, i.e. the more gasoline it contains.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports the following list of recent trade prices for various world crude oils. (Table 12 in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report). The prices are in U.S. Dollars per Barrel - estimated contract prices based on government - selling prices, netback values, or spot market quotations. All prices are f.o.b. at the foreign port of lading. (See the EIA WPSR for further notes.)


EIA World Crude Oil Prices
Country Crude Name API Gravity $/Bbl
Saudi Arabia Arabian Light 34 10.65
Saudi Arabia Arabian Medium 31 10.20
Saudi Arabia Arabian Heavy 27 9.75
Abu Dhabi Murban 3910.45
Qatar Dukhan 40 11.16
Iran Iranian Light 3410.45
Iran Iranian Heavy 31 10.15
Iraq Kirkuk 36 10.06
Kuwait Kuwait 31 10.00
Neutral Zone Khafji 28 10.65
Algeria Saharan Blend 44 11.83
Nigeria Bonny Light 37 11.05
Nigeria Forcados 31 11.40
Libya Es Sider 37 11.60
Indonesia Minas 34 11.30
Venezuela Tia Juana Light 31 10.77
United Kingdom Brent Blend 38 10.95
Norway Ekofisk Blend 42 11.60
Canada Sweet Mixed Bld 38 16.02
Canada Lloyd Blend 22 9.45
Mexico Isthmus 33 10.68
Mexico Maya 22 7.97
Colombia Cano Limon 30 10.30
Ecuador Oriente 30 9.80
Angola Cabinda 32 11.10
Cameroon Kole 34 11.10
Egypt Suez Blend 33 10.10
Gabon Mandji 30 10.07
Oman Oman Blend 3410.65
Australia Gippsland 42 12.20
Malaysia Tapis Blend 44 10.95
Russia Urals 32 10.85
China Daquing 33 11.20



When a refinery uses more than one crude oil, which is very common, it blends two or more crude oils to make one feedstock which meets specific criteria. The goal of the refiner is to make a crude oil that maximizes the use of all the process equipment in his specific refinery.

The limitation on the quality of crude feed to refineries creates an invisible bottleneck in the system. There is always lots of crude oil available. The question is, how much of it can we refine with the refineries we have constructed? The world's refinery system seems to be well balanced to available crudes at the turn of this new century.





Weekly Report - Crude Oil

Taking advantage of low prices, U.S. refiners are stocking up on crude oil. Inventories increased 2.7 million barrels last week from 324.4 to 327.1 million. Refining rates decreased from 15.26 to 14.91 million barrels per day. And despite the huge product inventories, refiners added 100,000 bpd refining capacity last week. Capacity utilization dropped from 96.5 to 94.3 percent.

The NOESIS crude oil price forecast remains unchanged.






Gasoline inventories reached 222 million barrels, which is more than the maximum stored in 1998. Distillate inventory levels were finally drawn down due to cold weather across the country, dropping 6.5 million barrels from 154.2 to 147.7 million.


EIA U.S. Refining Data
Inputs and Imports are 4-week Avg
Input/OutputMillion BPDImportsMillion BPDInventoryMillion BBL
Week Jan 8Jan 15Jan 8Jan 15Jan 8Jan 15
Crude Oil 15.115.28.68.7324.4327.1
Gasoline 8.38.30.4460.460217.6222.0
Distillate 3.53.50.1840.238154.2147.7
Resid 0.80.80.2600.21744.544.5



W orld crude oil prices reported by EIA as of January 15, 1999: Saudi Arabian Lt (34 API) - $10.65, Nigerian Bonny Light (37 API) - $11.60, UK Brent (38 API) - $10.95, and Mexico Maya (22 API) - $7.97.

Posted prices for crude oil as of January 24, 1999 were: Scurlock, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) $10.00; Louisiana Lt. Sweet Onshore $9.00, Oklahoma Sweet $10.00; Refiner posted prices were: WTI $12.00, Kern River (13 API) $7.25; Alaska North Slope (28 API) $10.46; Kettleman Hill (34 API) $9.20(Avg) and Wilmington (17 API) $7.10

East Coast Gasoline and Heating Oil

East of the Rockies - East of the rockies gasoline stocks are as high as they were last January but there is still room in PADD II and PADD III storage tanks for additional product. Since the inventories of distillate have finally been drawn down, refiners can continue to process crude oil at rates slightly higher than demand for at least another week.

Gasoline and diesel prices increased by a fraction of a cent in PADD III, but there is no reason to believe they will continue to rise. Products are plentiful and prices remain the lowest in years.

EIA reported gasoline prices per gallon for Regular on January 85 were as follows: PAD I - $.92, PAD II - $.92, and PAD III - 0.90.

Diesel prices on January 11 were: PADD I - $.98, PADD II - $.95, and PADD III - $.94

FORECAST: Gasoline prices will remain low and may drop further with the price of crude oil during late February and early March. Diesel prices should remain stable through spring.

The price of heating oil will remain low through 1999 -- there should be plenty of vendors willing to sell at reasonable prices.

Rocky Mountain Gasoline and Diesel

Rocky Mountain - the price of regular gasoline increased 2 cents to $.97 per gallon and the price of diesel remained at about $.99 per gallon.

Rocky Mountain prices will continue to mirror changes in the price of crude oil.

West Coast Gasoline and Diesel Forecast

West Coast - gasoline inventories increased from 28 million to 31.2 million over a 2 week period. That was the first significant increase in inventories since July 1998. The increase is probably due to lower seasonal demand. If refining rates remain at current levels, excess inventories may pressure refiners to reduce the price of gasoline in the West. Overall, prices are still a bit higher than they could be under optimum competition conditions, so there is room for prices to drop.

On January 18 the average price of (reg-mid-premium) gasoline in PADD V was $1.14 per gallon. The price of Regular in PADD V was $1.09 per gallon. Reformulated gasoline costs $1.13 per gallon.

The average price of diesel in PADD V dropped to $1.06 and Californian's are paying $1.11 per gallon. Production of diesel decreased, and diesel inventories are being drawn down, so the stage is set for an increase in diesel prices.

FORECAST: The price of gasoline and diesel SHOULD continue to follow the price of crude oil. Higher gasoline inventories and lower diesel inventories may lead to different marketing strategies which could lead to lower gasoline prices and higher diesel prices within the next couple of weeks.



Many readers write in and ask for more data or specific information. You are encouraged to explore the NOESIS Index Page and the Links Page. The links listed have been especially selected to get you to data and information which will supplement the information you find on the NOESIS site. They are all great sites! For EIA data used in these forecasts, select the Energy Information Administration link. Once there, select Petroleum. Then select "Weekly Petroleum Status Report" The TEXT version gives you basic data. Or scroll down and select pdf, text or html files for tables and graphs. There is a wealth of information on the EIA site. With the analytical tools you've picked up by reading the NOESIS reports, you should be able to use most of the data! As always, if you have questions, send email. contact George Clemen at NOESIS


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